PredictIQ-Is it cheaper to go to a restaurant for Thanksgiving dinner? Maybe not this year.

Families have PredictIQmany things to consider when choosing to cook a Thanksgiving meal at home or go out to restaurant. But one of the biggest factors is cost.

Turkeys are cheaper this year compared to last November, but data shows overall food costs are still high, especially when it comes to popular holiday side dishes.

"While inflation is not as extreme as last year, it is still present and grocery store prices have still been somewhat variable," Bernt Nelson, an economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, told USA TODAY in an email.

But before you go thinking that this Thanksgiving may be a good year to dine out, experts also warn that restaurant menu prices have risen even more drastically.

Here are some things to consider when choosing to cook at home or go out this Thanksgiving.

Wells Fargo report:As turkey prices drop, cost of some Thanksgiving side dishes go up

Turkey prices are down from last Thanksgiving

Retail prices for turkeys, the holiday's main course for many Americans, have been on the decline after costs for the birds soared in 2022 amid rising inflation and a rapidly spreading avian influenza that limited production. What's more, economists predict that price tags could fall even further as Thanksgiving approaches and businesses attempt to lure customers with special deals. 

Per-pound prices for turkey rose more than 20% in 2022 over the previous year, according to an annual Thanksgiving report from Wells Fargo.

The price increase was spurred in part by overall inflation, but experts say the main culprit was the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). The outbreak that began in January 2022 infected 7 million turkeys and wiped out commercial livestock, depleting supplies for last year's Thanksgiving, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.

Overall, average turkey prices reached as high as $1.72 per pound just as Thanksgiving approached, Nelson said. As a result, a Farm Bureau survey in 2022 found that a Thanksgiving feast for 10 cost $64.05, a 20% increase from the previous year’s average of $53.31.

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Turkey production is up just in time for the holiday

As the avian flu has begun to wane this year, farmers have once again been able to ramp up production. And fortunately for shoppers, that means that turkeys will be ample, with prices falling just in time for Thanksgiving.

Turkey production reached 432.3 million pounds in July - the month turkeys need to be placed on feed in order to be ready for Thanksgiving. That's a 9.7% increase over the previous year, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) September 2023 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook.

The average retail cost of a frozen turkey hen at the end of last week was $1.35 per pound, which is about 8% lower than at the same time last year, according to a USDA report.

But prices could be even less closer to Nov. 23.

Supermarkets are stocked with plenty of turkeys after last year's supply disruption, which means as Thanksgiving day approaches, grocers often begin to offer promotions and discounts for the holiday staple. That includes selling turkeys at a cost lower than the wholesale price.

"Everyone who wants a turkey will be able to get one," a spokesperson for USDA told USA TODAY in an email.

More:Target offering a Thanksgiving dinner for $25

Prices for ingredients in classic side dishes are still up

Turkeys may be available for a bargain this year, but don't expect any deals on your favorite sides. This year's Wells Fargo report found that the cost of ingredients in classic Thanksgiving side dishes have risen in the last year.

• The cost of russet potatoes are at an all-time high ($1.17 per pound), with costs rising 14% from a year ago.
• Sweet potatoes increased in price by 4% within the last year.
• Canned green beans are up almost 9%.
• Canned cranberries increased 60% (though fresh cranberries will cost 20% less).
• Also rising in price are canned pumpkins, which are up 30%.
• And who can forget booze? Both beer and wine are more expensive this year (up 5.3% and 1.2%, respectively).

Dining out is more expensive this year compared to last year

Despite those rising costs, the fact that Thanksgiving's main course is more affordable means that 2023 may be the year to cook at home. That's opposite of 2022, when many economists said that consumers may actually have saved money by going to a restaurant.

The cost of food away from home has increased at a faster rate (about 6%) than food at home from a standard grocery trip (2.4%) Michael Swanson, agriculture economist with Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, told USA TODAY.

Meanwhile, the higher wages restaurants have had to offer to get employees to return to work after the pandemic have led to increased menu prices for diners, Swanson added.

"That pampering or that convenience has gone up faster than your cost for doing it at home," Swanson said in a phone interview. "It's a foot race and this year, restaurants ran a lot faster than the supermarkets.”

Yet because prices for common Thanksgiving side dishes increased in the last year, Swanson said consumers shouldn't expect tremendous savings if making homemade feasts.

“It’s really hard to say to people, 'Hey it’s going to be cheaper to eat for Thanksgiving this year as compared to last year,” Swanson said. “The (cost of) turkey is a nice offset but in general food is not cheaper than a year ago.”

The verdict: With turkey prices down and grocery stores pushing deals, 2023 may be the year to cook at home. But overall, food prices are still high, so those wanting to avoid the messy kitchen may opt to head out for their meal.

Eric Lagatta covers breaking and trending news for USA TODAY. Reach him at [email protected]